Climate change is defined as consequential changes in the global climate that take place over an extended period. The most robust evidence scientists have of climate change at present includes long-term data correlating atmospheric CO2 levels with global temperature, sea level changes, the expanse of ice, fossil records, and species distribution. Flooding has been reported to be one of the notable effects of climate change in our world. This is particularly important in the case of the UAE, where the effects of such floods were felt recently.
The UAE experiences a desert climate characterized by two primary seasons, winter and summer, with two transitional periods in between. Winter, which spans from December to March, typically sees average temperatures ranging from 16.4°C to 24°C. The first transitional period, occurring from April to May, is notable for its unpredictable weather patterns and swift shifts in conditions. Usually, rainfall is light and inconsistent in the UAE. The country averages 140 – 200 mm of rainfall annually, with some mountainous regions experiencing up to 350 mm/year.
However, climate change is accelerating due to rising global temperatures, eventually leading to increased flooding in the UAE. UAE has previously seen heavy rainfall, such as in 2017, where 98.4mm of rain was recorded in 24 hours. But recently, rainfall of greater magnitudes has been documented. Starting with 2020, when more than 150mm of rainfall was recorded between Jan 09 and Jan 12, and more notably in the past few months in 2024, where 142 mm of rainfall was recorded in 24 hours in Dubai and an even greater amount of 254.8mm in Al Ain (records of Apr 22, 2024).
The heavy rainfall and extreme weather, especially in 2024, have led to significant consequences. Flight schedules were disrupted in the Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest airport, because of the flooded runways. Schools and universities were closed, and government and private organization employees were advised to work from home. Multiple residential properties and vehicles were also damaged and needed heavy maintenance afterward. The UAE also lacks the appropriate drainage systems to manage heavy downpours caused by climate change, which leads to flooded roads during extreme weather conditions. Public transportation was also severely affected, especially the Dubai Metro which accounts for most of the total public transport ridership. At least four fatalities were recorded in the UAE.
Following the aftermath of the storms, authorities and local communities initiated extensive clean-up and recovery operations, including debris removal and necessary repairs. In Sharjah, the city municipality deployed 670 water tanker trucks and pumps to drain collected rainwater. The government stated that emergency response teams, including civil defense, ambulances, and police, would continue their "intensive efforts" to ensure a full recovery.
In Dubai, various property developers are providing free maintenance for damaged properties, alternative housing, and cleaning services, as well as helping assess ongoing risks to housing. Additionally, a leading electronics organization is offering free repairs and maintenance for electronic goods damaged in the floods. The Crown Prince of Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan, has required the formation of a committee to review citizens' requests. This collaboration between the public and private sectors is expected to speed up the recovery process in Dubai.
Experts confirmed that the floods are due to the continuing effects of climate change. Studies indicate that, over time, severe downpours like these are expected to become more frequent in the region if global warming continues to intensify in the coming years.
UAE's meteorology agency also affirmed that cloud seeding did not cause the heavy rainfall. According to Esraa Alnaqbi, a senior forecaster at the UAE's National Centre of Meteorology, a low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere combined with low pressure at the surface created a 'squeeze' effect on the air. This squeeze was intensified by the temperature difference between the warmer ground level and the colder higher altitudes, leading to a strong thunderstorm. Alnaqbi explained that while this "abnormal phenomenon" is not uncommon in April due to rapid pressure changes during the season transition, climate change likely also played a role in the storm.
Climate scientists indicate that human-induced climate change is causing rising global temperatures, resulting in more severe weather events, such as heavier rainfall. "Rainfall from thunderstorms, similar to those recently experienced in the UAE, intensifies significantly with warming. This occurs because convection, the powerful updraft in thunderstorms, becomes stronger in a warmer climate," explained Dim Coumou, a professor specializing in climate extremes at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
Researchers also found that burning fossil fuels could have led to an increase in rainfall severity. Human modifications to the landscape have also increased the dangers for individuals living in low-lying regions. We have to stop burning fossil fuels and we have to redesign our cities," stated Friederike Otto, a senior climate science lecturer at Imperial College London. "We must stop putting concrete everywhere. The reason for the fatalities is that there are almost no permeable surfaces at all, so the road turned into a river in a very short time. This builds a death trap."
Keeping this in mind, it's crucial to consistently enhance preparedness for extreme weather events to reduce the risk of disruption for residents and businesses. This may involve evaluating infrastructure like drainage systems to help mitigate flood levels similar to those experienced recently. Hassan Al Mansoori, the Undersecretary for Infrastructure and Transport Affairs at the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure (MoEI), explained that the ministry has mobilized a team to evaluate the damage to current infrastructure and is studying how to enhance dams and waterways to endure extreme weather in the future better. Other resilience measures, such as maintaining roadside water pumps, are also being considered. This swift shift from response to recovery is crucial for future preparedness.
In 2017, the UAE initiated the National Early Warning System project to issue alerts ahead of severe events to protect lives and property. These warnings give organizations and residents time to secure their surroundings before severe weather hits. BCI board member Kelly Blakeley MBCI, based in the UAE, expressed gratitude for the responders and community workers who showed support and resilience during the recent challenging events. She emphasized that the storms highlight the need for organizations to cultivate a culture of resilience internally and within their communities, "Organizational leaders should continue investing in readiness, following recognized good practices, and enhancing their resilience and crisis preparedness".
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